(Sh)It Doesn't Just Happen // Bob Mayer

Why I'm reading
Seemed kinda interesting: a Green Beret's take on some famous historical disasters. The first disaster he covers is the Titanic, and I used to be huge into the Titanic in 3rd grade... yes, right before the movie came out, and no, I was not happy to discover it was a romantic drama instead of an IMAX documentary.

Where I got the book
Another free eBook from LibraryThing Early Reviewers!

Expectations
I didn't really go into this with a lot of expectations, but in retrospect I was expecting more thorough research.

So how was it?

This book might have turned out well -- if someone ran it through a very heavy-handed editor first. And I don't mean the kind of editor who decided you can't start a book with the word "shit," and certainly can't put it in the title. (Yeah, that little change makes the first few lines of this book relatively incoherent. Meanwhile, the word "shit" is censored to sh!t throughout the book -- was this written by a twelve year old?) I mean the kind of editor who will tell you when you haven't supported your argument or need to cut down on the lists. And fix the occasional typo.

The premise of the book -- military trained disaster expert commenting on various historical disasters -- is fairly interesting. I wouldn't think poorly of someone for enjoying it. But unfortunately, it's written and argued like a third grade persuasive essay. He actually ends his introduction by repeating what is clearly his 'thesis statement,' and follows it up with "That is the purpose of this book."

Mayer is heavy on number lists (humans love threes and sevens!). Rule of 7, seven catastrophes. Three reasons to read this book, three reasons to listen to me, three benefits of catastrophe thinking. He insists that it's always seven failures that lead to catastrophe -- never less! -- and fluffs most of his catastrophes to round out the number. He's also heavy on code words. Every single facet of an idea has its own code word, defined at the end of the chapter (the intro includes, but is not limited to: "No-do-over," "Sh!t Happens," "Cascade Event," "Final Event," "Delusion Event," "The Gift of Failure"). One code word is confusingly similar to a common cognitive bias ("Halo effect") but he's using it to mean something entirely different -- and he was a psychology major!

On top of this, he takes a lot of things on faith simply because they make sense to him. He points out that some experts think that binoculars wouldn't have made a difference in the Titanic's fate -- but dismisses it completely ("I'll go with the guy who was there.") Of course you will! If the binoculars wouldn't have made a difference, it invalidates your Rule of 7, that there are a minimum of seven "cascade events," and that stopping any one cascade event will stop the catastrophe!

There were all sorts of other things that drove me up a wall. Mayer counts Custer's failed extermination of Native Americans at Little Big Horn a "catastrophe." He doesn't understand what a Pyrrhic victory is -- I think he confused it with the word "futile." In places you can feel him bending reality to fit his own understanding of the world, like his tangent into how Custer doesn't really count as a real West Point grad (since that would upset his view of military training).

But ultimately, hey, I read the whole thing. The stories were interesting, kind of like reading a Cracked article.

Recommendation
This book would be really great for anyone in charge of disaster planning -- any sort of disaster planning, not just ships/airplanes/military/etc. But it has about as much historical worth as a Cracked article.

Feels
A little bit like an infomercial.

Favorites
I like the idea and the format. And yes, he does make some good points, mostly about disaster preparation (duh) and different ways people can mess up.

Least favorites
Honestly, it's a masterpiece in confirmation bias.

Writing style
3rd grade persuasive essay.